True Poker Minds

This news article correctly shows the mind of a true poker player:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2008/jun/16/poker

No card sharp of any age should be stupid enough to play roulette. But this month, at the Victoria Casino in London (British poker's HQ), there are poker shrewdies round the wheel every night between midnight and 1am. Why? Because - damaged like all casinos by the smoking ban - the Vic is offering a crazy June promotion, where the number corresponding to the date (today it will be 16) is paid out, for that "happy hour", at 40-1.

The odds of it coming are 36-1. The offered price is usually 35-1. To pay better than true odds is revolutionary, and inadvisable for a casino. Smart poker players are in there every night, betting the relevant number as many times as possible. It's an interesting symbol of what good poker is all about: taking odds in your favour, bending chance under your will, and accepting that it might still beat you anyway. If you bet the "happy" number for £5 each time over 100 spins of the wheel, you could lose up to £500 and win up to £20,000. But you should win £50. It's like betting the full pot if your hand is any better than 2-1. Roulette is too dangerous to recommend, even during this June madness, but let it be a poker lesson in taking the beneficial price: if you lose anyway, you've still done the right thing.

Back in the Grind

Bankroll is now up to $750, but wow, what an adventure it took just to get to this from May.

So I ended May around $480, on a bit of a downswing after running it up to $600 at NL50. I decided to move back to NL25 at the start of June to get my confidence back, and promptly ran it up to $550 again. Nice.

Then I got this glorious email from RakeBackPros telling me that I can now receive rakeback from Full Tilt. Alright! Wanting to take advantage of this. I moved $500, most of my roll, to Full Tilt. And then promptly lost 25% of it in a week.

I don't why, but I just can't beat the games at Full Tilt. Whenever I've got a big hand I never get paid off, and whenever I play a big pot I lost. I've also noticed that the players are better than at Pokerstars, they raise more preflop and are generally more tight-aggressive. So there you are, I can't beat NL25 again. What a humbling experience.

I was getting close to despair, but what saved me again was Pokerstars. I left a little bit of money there so that I can still keep playing some of the tourneys, I just love the structures there. I've been playing the 180-player $4.40 SnG and finished just short of the money the first 3 times. The 4th time, I struck gold. I finished 2nd for almost $150, which made up for my losses at FT and and put me back up to $600.

So there you are, I've somewhat given up on my Full Tilt game already, and just concentrated on Pokerstars again, even without rakeback at least I can win there. I'm playing NL50 (playing 60BB) once again and been up 1.5 buy-ins the past week. Here's hoping I can avoid a downswing for the near future.

Stuck

Before the last 2 weeks, I had the most ridiculous run of poker at NL25 and then at NL50. In a course of a month, I turned my $50 at Pokerstars and $100 at Bodog into a combined $650. Along the way I cashed out of Bodog and moved it into Pokerstars so that I could start playing NL50 exclusively (still underrolled of course). I was feeling pretty good about myself, even having plans to move up to NL100 by the end of June and then maybe NL200 by December. I was on a roll.

Of course, now I'm on a downswing.

I'll be lucky if I'm not back at NL25 by the end of June, the deadline I had hoped to move up on. It's been 2 weeks of consistent losing, sprinkled with 2 days of slightly finishing up on the session. From a high point of $650, I'm now at $480. I promised myself I'd move back down to NL25 if I ever drop below $400 (bankroll management kuno). Great, that means I just have 1.5 buyins of NL50 left.

Here's a couple of steps I'm taking to help me stay in NL50:
1. Play less tables. I've been trying to get myself to playing 6 tables regularly, and even went up to 8 tables at 1 point. Although I do feel like I'm more focused and I play better with more tables, I should drop to 2-3 tables just to control the amount of my roll I'm putting into play.

2. Start at 60BB again. I made that run buying-in for only 60BB per table, the amount which I think is perfect for playing top pair hands. Once I reached $580+ I moved to buying-in in full and then always reloading once it dips slightly, just like they do in the poker training videos.

I noticed that at 100BB I'm more scared (and rightly so) to play single pair hands. Now that in itself isn't a bad thing, but I overdid it and turned my game into tight-passive where before I was tight-aggressive. Maybe playing mid-stacks will help me play better again. Easier to get the SPR I want on the hand and all that.

3. Start reading again. What the fuck Jino. Mom got me Harrington on Cash Games vol. 1 about 3 weeks ago and I still haven't read 2/3 of it! I was expecting to have finished vol. 2 by now. I have to finish vol 1 before she next flies to the US so I can ask her to get the next book by then.


Still hoping to move up to NL100 before the end of the year.

Fuck the Fates

Last night I played 25-50 at the Metro and had a table that grinders dream about. I had 3 foreigners drunk off their asses having a shot of tequila every other hand, 2 obvious beginners who didn't know shit and was just there to gamble (Called a PF all-in with 5-3 offsuit. What. The. Fuck.), a good player who was super tight (ie, easy to read), and across me was a friend of mine so we were just gonna get out of each other's way. It just doesn't get any better than that kids.

After 3-4 orbits, I get 10-2 in the small blind. There's a lot of limpers so I just limp as well and that flop comes 10-7-2 with two clubs. Bullseye. I bet out around 300, and get called by the beginner on my right. Turn comes a non-club 3 so I bet out enough to have him commit all-in, which he gladly obliges. River is a non-club 4 which I thought was perfect until that monkey shows me his 56 offsuit. Yes folks, he called a pot size bet on the flop with 6 high and no draws, and then bet all-in on the turn with a gutshot. Really nice.

So I'm short stack now, and get QJ in the small blind after 1 orbit. There's a straddle to 100 so after a couple of callers I just call again. Flop is J high with 2 hearts. I go all-in for my last P700 on a P400 pot and get called by the foreiger with a flush draw. (Never heard of pot odds or implied odds huh?) Of course, a heart comes on the turn and I'm broke.

Normally I just call it a night after losing my buy-in but this table was just sooo juicy, I just had to rebuy. So I top up my stack and gird for battle once again. On the button I limp with J-8 of hearts. Flop comes all hearts. The shortstack CO raises 200 and I reraise to 700, putting him all in. He calls and shows me the nuts. Fuck!

Okay, now I'm starting to wonder what the hell is going on. I get 66 and I'm floated on JJ4 flop by the beginner with 9-10 and a 10 hits the river. I get JJ, raise, and the flop comes AK10 and people are betting like there's no tomorrow. None of my pocket pairs hit their sets and none of my draws make it. I DIDN'T WIN A SINGLE HAND IN 5 FUCKING HOURS!

My night finally ended when on the button I get QQ, raise to 400, and the drunk foreigner on my left goes all-in for 6k. I may have been tilting, but I forced myself to call and he has JJ. Whew! The pot was big enough to get me unstuck and maybe even leave me slightly ahead. Flop brings a J.

I was down 10k and now I have to rebuild at the 10-20. Sigh. Just another day of poker.

How long can this last?

It all started when I was at the worst point of the biggest downswing I've ever gone through (10+ buy-ins at NL10), with just $35 left after having been sucked out on (again) twice already in a span of 1 hour when I was favored 3to1. Sick of all this bullshit, I decided to give up on poker, and decided to finish myself off by playing/*moving up* to NL25.

NL25, a level which I have never previously beaten. Hell, a level which I've never been "UP", ever. It seems everytime I've played this level I start losing right away.
NL25, with just 1.5 buyins. Very nice.

Anyway, I've resigned myself to my fate, and wondered how long before I can finally drain my bankroll to $0. I'd put the over-under at probably at 1.5 hours. Let's see...

20 minutes in, I get into a big pot with a medium stack and surprisingly, my hand holds up. Okay, so maybe it might take me 2 hours. Over wins.

30 minutes later, I get into another big pot with a medium stack once again. And again, the poker gods shone a ray of light on the random number generator and my hand help up once again. When I finally left the table, I was up 2 buyins, bringing my bankroll up again to just under $80. I told myself what the hell, I'd call it a night, and play again tomorrow, staying at the NL25 until I go broke.

That was 3 weeks ago.

Poker is like a girl who wears slutty clothes but won't put out. She'll show you enough to keep you interested, she'll be friendly enough to let you think about the possibilities, but all that is just so she can turn down our busted asses broke. I HAVEN'T HAD A LOSING DAY IN 3 WEEKS! One tabling the NL25 all these weeks has left me with a bankroll of about $250. (You can see that I don't play that often).

Some days I win $5, some days I $35, last night I won $2. But the fact is I'm winning again, against all odds, against all rational explanation, against all that is possible, I'm winning again when I shouldn't. I'm playing scared money for crying out loud!! Shitty too. I raise JJ preflop and I'm reraised big? Fold. 7-4 in the big blind and the flop is 7 high? Check fold the flop. Small blind and everyone folds to me? Fold as well.

I'm still SEVERELY underolled for my level (just 10 buyins), but at this point I don't care anymore about playing correctly. I'll just keep chugging along in this manner for the time being until I reach disaster once again.

Of course, now that I've written about it, I've just jinxed myself and the disaster will be coming to me soon.

Reality Bites

And the reality is I'm a losing player.

Sucks, the truth hurts and all that, but I just gotta accept it. I gotta accept the fact that I'll never make any money from this game. I should stick to playing it because I enjoy it and I just love playing poker, but never expect to win.

Sigh.

Reflections

I've been trying to analyze why I suck so much lately and here's a few things I've noticed about my game.

1. I suck so hard preflop
I'm a preflop pussy. I'd never raise anything but Pocket Jacks and up, and would fold anything else to an average preflop raise by someone else. Yes, I'd fold AK to a preflop raise of 3 or times the blinds, all in the name of "trying to lessen my variance", which I've always thought was a good thing. This is also why I always used to play the 6max tables instead of FR, my reasoning being that in 6max I don't need to raise since with less players the need for preflop raising is less as well. What an idiot I am.

As for lessening my variance, that's a big mistake to begin with. I read something about this on 2+2 which hit me pretty hard. It states The best players don't try to avoid or lessen their variance. the best players simply don't even care about the variance." If you're playing correctly like you should, variance is just what it is, a short term spike in luck. Over the long run variance disappears anyway and your true results will be evident, which makes worrying about it stupid and worthless.

2. Repeat after me: Bankroll, bankroll, bankroll...
Of course, I need to actually be able to reach the long term first. That means having a bankroll that can withstand the variance. I, in my everlasting intelligence, decided to start playing 25NL with a bankroll of around only $250. With just 10 buy-ins, I had to play carefully and avoid too much gambling. This also relates to my 1st point where I was trying to avoid variance. And as any knowledgeable player will tell you, if you're playing with scared money you might as well give it all up right now and stop wasting time, you're going to lose it all eventually anyway.

3. Short stacks should only happen in tournaments
With my bankroll not large enough for the stakes I was playing, I had to make things worse by starting to buy-in short. I resorted to hit and run tactics, I bought in for $7 or $8 at 25NL, looked to double up, then moved to a different table, rinse, and repeat.

Short stacking is bad for a variety of reasons. First, I was negating my advantage and playing to my disadvantage. I've already said I suck at preflop poker, but it didn't bother me too much before because I think I'm above average postflop. Postflop, I know can generally make the right decisions, even get away from a big hand if I sense I'm beat. With shorstacking, I'm looking to gamble preflop to double up quickly or bust, so my advantages were reduced to nil.

Also, as a shortstack I can't put too much pressure on my opponents, my bets have no leverage whatsoever. I noticed that when I play for the max buy-in, I prefer to have shortstacks opponents instead of other big stacks. I find it easier to make decisions against them, plus there's a certain satisfaction that comes with busting someone. Knowing all this I still tried to play a shortstack for a significant amount of time. What. The. Fuck.

I'm trying to correct all 3 above, but it will take some time. I've dropped back to 10NL, now always starting with a full buy-in, and raising and calling preflop more. Last night I made it a rule where if I'm the first one in the pot, I'm raising it if I decide to play. No more open limping, if at all possible. Of course I'll have to refine that again and again, but it's a good start. It's a long, very hard road from where I am right now to where I want to be.

Getting More Fishy as Time Goes By

Ok, so I'm playing really bad, and I'm on a downswing. Admittedly it's more of the former, but they're a really bad combination to be in. Last night I lost 2 buy-ins playing 10NL at UB. In the first one I open raised to 3xBB from middle position with AJ offsuit, everyone folds to the BB who min-raises, and I call. We both have somewhere around $8-$9. Flop came AJ5 rainbow, BB checks, I bet 2/3 the pot and he calls. Turn comes a 10, he checks again. I bet half the pot and he min-reraises. Feeling commited I move all in and he shows me KQ for the straight. Dammit.

2nd time, I get 44 middle position and limp along with almost everyone else. Flop is a beauty with 10-8-4 rainbow. BB raises pot, I reraise him 2.5 times his bet, and he moves all in. I call and he shows KK. Turn? K. River? K. Dammit.

A couple of things to note. I'm trying to bonus whore and moved most of the bankroll to Ultimate Bet to take advantage of rakeback and the 111% first deposit bonus. After I claim this I plan to keep on moving my bankroll around to claim as many bonuses as I can. Of course, the flaw in this plan is that I need to avoid busting and and at least break even playing the tables for the bonuses to make any difference. With the way I've been playing the last few weeks, it's starting to come into doubt.

I've also moved back down to 10NL. I just simply had my ass handed back to me in pieces when I tried 25NL. I lost $100 in the 2 weeks, cutting my bankroll almost in half when combined with the $50 I cashed out. I'll have to rebuild at 10NL for the meantime before I try moving up again, and next time I'm going to do it right.

To make matters worse, I've lost another 2k playing at the Metro. I'm just playing so bad it's getting embarrassing. I'm starting to think that the players' eyes light up when I sit at the tables as they think I'm going to be "easy money", and I can't blame them. Sigh.

I read somewhere that until you've reached a point where you really, really, really hate this game, well, you just haven't played enough poker. I'm starting to reach that point now. Ah well, hope I can snap out of this.

Reversal of Fortunes

The biggest news in town is that the Metro is now open, making my heart rejoice and fulfilling the hopes and dreams of every cardplayer and/or degenerate gambler that doesn't live in the fucking South. Honestly, it's about damn time that a cardroom opened up in the area, now we no longer need to travel all the way to Paranaque to get our legal poker fix.

Since it opened a month ago, I've taken to playing there somewhat regularly, mostly in their 10-20 cash games. I've played a total of 5 sessions averaging about 4-5 hours on each, and my total take is: -P1200.

Dammit!

I don't understand it, I've won big the last few times I've played at the ACF, and really had good confidence in my live game, at least for the 10-20. However so far with the Metro I've had 4 losing sessions and only 1 winning one. And if it wasn't for that monstrous winning one (Up 3.5k after playing 3 hours), I'd be a deeper hole than I'm currently in.

And in a weird reversal, lately I've been winning great online. Usually it's I win in my live cash games and bumble around with my online poker at Full Tilt. It's almost a year since I first deposited there and I was still break even for my $50 for fuck's sake, and I already count myself a lucky bastard with that since I could have gone broke lots of times with my dumbass play. But in the last month playing 10NL, I've doubled my roll easily by following Chris Ferguson's bankroll tips. If things go as well as planned (i.e., I don't tilt again), I'm expecting to move up to 25NL by mid-October.

I'm a bit depressed with the state of my live play right, I'm just playing really bad and without any heart. I'm forcing myself to take a break from live play for awhile, at least I can move up to the 25NL online. Hopefully that'll give me enough time to clear my screwed up head and regain my confidence regarding my live play. It should also let me concentrate on improving online as well, which will be a good thing. I tried 3-tabling for the first time last night, hopefully I can get more used to multi-tabling.

The worst bad beat I've ever had

"There is an annual cap of 65,000 H1-B’s that are granted every year. The USCIS announced on Tuesday, April 3rd, that they received H-1B petitions in excess of the annual allotment (65,000)..."

"...we need to cancel your travel plans and postpone your interviews. ...we do need to wait until we get more information on how this recent development will affect your work eligibility. I expect that we’ll know how to proceed best in the next 4 weeks."


The US Congress is a bunch of idiots. You know what will be the downfall of America? Every year a million illegal immigrants enter their country to work in farms, but only 65,000 visas are allocated for highly skilled for workers that want to stay in their country legally.

Putangina.